Euro 2012 - 500 days to go.

I don't know who's doing the numbers for the Euro 2012 Championships but the article here at thenews.pl, marking the progress of preparations for the games which start in 500 days' time, suggests estimates are at a million visitors in total. The progress on the major infrastructure projects seems to be going relatively well.

It's also important to get the little details right too, as the article notes and as one commenter in the article suggests, such as toilets, directions and general beautification. Time will tell on this. But I'd link that thought back to my specific idea for a 'Walksaw' initiative intended to overhaul and unify walking routes around the city. Right now the various parts of Warsaw feel, to this relative newcomer, unconnected, just like the motorway development across the country seems to be very higgledy-piggledy.  It sounds low cost and simple enough to install more information points and a route marking system on pavements.

Regarding visitor numbers, I feel the estimate of one million visitors during the period of the championship is a bit too low.

Let's look first at the two most recent World Cups, one in South Africa, one in Germany, and the numbers of England fans attending each. 

According to a report here on Channel 4 News, 70% of UK Adults watched England on TV playing in South Africa. 50,000 fans give or take a few thousand, actually flew out (myself included), despite ludicrous scare stories like this one at the Telegraph with titles like "England Fans virtually certain to die." The cost of flights alone was an average of £550. Total costs over all ranged between £3,000 and £8,000 depending on ticket packages, accommodation and travel costs. 50,000 fans given these costs is a huge number.

At the World Cup of 2006 in Germany transport costs were significantly lower, with driving by car, bus or coach a realistic proposition, and low-cost airlines were still banging flights out at £50 in those days. Accommodation was more developed and numerous than in South Africa and the weather was glorious - some of my friends who went just slept in parks the whole time.  Estimates for English visitors vary but the Embassy seemed to suggest at the time about 100,000. I'd suggest it was more like 150,000 over the total period including those without tickets going for the 'craic.'

Clearly, despite the costs, England fans attended these two World Cups in droves, with, for obvious reasons, a much much greater attendance at the closer games. 

At Euro 2008 in Austria/Switzerland, the BBC indicate the total overall attendance (not counting big screen/other attendance of fans visiting the country without tickets) was 1.1million. 

Now Poland and Ukraine 2012 is 500 days away, I think it's safe to say English visitors will be much closer to the 100,000 mark of Germany 2006 and probably significantly higher than that (At the Euro 2004 championships about 70,000 known England fans travelled to Portugal so there seems to be an increasing trend in the numbers of English fans travelling to European competitions). The Zlotych exchange rate is particularly attractive for fans coming from the Euro-zone and the UK and the cost of goods is much lower, beer being most important of course!

Without knowing how the Euro 2012 organisers have broken down the figures of visitors (can’t find this on the web) I would suggest the million visitors estimate is too low. Unless the organisers think that 10 – 20% of all visitors during this period will come from England alone, just one of the 20-odd countries participating.

I just hope Poland and Ukraine are ready for what happens when the whole of Europe comes to stay for a month, particularly if they've not properly estimated demand and capacity.

The opportunity to showcase Poland's strengths will never be better, nor the stakes involved in doing so higher. I for one can't wait.